AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 12

Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles
3:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
26%74%
xG
3.04.7
High danger
47
Chances
1115
Shots
2844

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal44
11Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances7
2.95Expected goals4.67

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–134–21–11.2–1.1
2nd11–155–52–21.2–1.5
3rd6–162–81–40.6–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
44
Saves
40
Allowed
4
xGA
4.67
GSAx
+0.67
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-0.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:22Peter Holland (1–0)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 3:43Penalty
  • 1st 10:15Penalty
  • 1st 10:15Penalty
  • 1st 13:10Penalty
  • 1st 13:10Penalty
  • 1st 14:12Steven Kampfer (1–1)grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 14:35Steven Kampfer (1–2)low · 27 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 1st 16:26Penalty
  • 2nd 6:42Ryan Sandelin (2–2)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 7:00Penalty
  • 2nd 7:00Penalty
  • 2nd 7:00Penalty
  • 2nd 15:56Penalty
  • 3rd 3:53Milos Kelemen (2–3)grade A · 7 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 7:07Cameron Hebig (2–4)high · 19 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 7:46Penalty
  • 3rd 10:02Penalty
  • 3rd 14:37Penalty
  • 3rd 18:36Riley Tufte (3–4)medium · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta