Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild

4:7

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 3.15.1
High danger: 413
Chances: 1620
Shots: 3439

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal39

16Scoring chances20

4High-danger chances13

3.11Expected goals5.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	4–8	2–6	1.0–2.2
2nd	4–13	2–6	1–3	0.4–1.4
3rd	18–13	10–6	1–4	1.7–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Peyton Jones

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 32
Allowed: 7
xGA: 5.10
GSAx: -1.90

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: -0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:18Jeffrey Viel (0–1)low · 30 ft · beat Peyton Jones
1st 7:12Penalty
1st 8:33Penalty
1st 9:22Dominic Toninato (0–2)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 2:44Mark Liwiski (0–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 4:55Kristian Reichel (0–4)high · 16 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 10:59Kristian Reichel (0–5)high · 19 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 12:45Penalty
2nd 14:34Michael Milne (1–5)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 2:38Penalty
3rd 2:38Penalty
3rd 2:38Penalty
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 9:08Caedan Bankier (2–5)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 13:43Penalty
3rd 15:01Penalty
3rd 15:46Jeffrey Viel (2–6)empty net · low · 122 ft · beat Peyton Jones
3rd 18:00Steven Fogarty (3–6)high · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:00David Špaček (4–6)medium · 28 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:11Kristian Reichel (4–7)empty net · low · 38 ft · beat Peyton Jones