AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 13

Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators
2:8
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
1.92.5
High danger
35
Chances
87
Shots
2227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal27
8Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances5
1.94Expected goals2.51

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–150–20–10.2–1.1
2nd12–56–32–31.2–0.8
3rd6–72–21–10.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−60:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL60:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
1.94
GSAx
-0.06
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.07
GSAx
-2.93
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
5
Saves
2
Allowed
3
xGA
0.43
GSAx
-2.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:47Isak Rosén (0–1)high · 6 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 1st 6:43Mason Jobst (0–2)low · 16 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 1st 11:06Isak Rosén (0–3)low · 37 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 1st 19:36Zach Metsa (0–4)low · 41 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 0:25Penalty
  • 2nd 5:44Penalty
  • 2nd 11:38Penalty
  • 2nd 13:32Penalty
  • 2nd 13:39Michael Mersch (0–5)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 14:42Penalty
  • 2nd 15:42Penalty
  • 2nd 17:05Jiří Kulich (0–6)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 17:44Penalty
  • 3rd 1:42Jiří Kulich (0–7)high · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 8:48Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–7)low · 31 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 12:04Kyle Betts (2–7)medium · 27 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 13:20Jiří Kulich (2–8)medium · 15 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen