Bridgeport Islanders at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

4:5

Final / OT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BRILVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 3.82.7
High danger: 42
Chances: 116
Shots: 2840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal40

11Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances2

3.77Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–18	3–6	0–2	1.0–1.5
2nd	6–13	3–0	1–0	1.3–0.6
3rd	9–7	4–0	2–0	1.0–0.4
OT	1–2	1–0	1–0	0.5–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:29	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: -2.33

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.78
GSAx: -0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:02Penalty
1st 7:44Penalty
1st 9:09Karson Kuhlman (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 13:04Ethan Samson (1–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 18:15Adam Brooks (1–2)low · 22 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 5:10Brian Pinho (2–2)grade A · rebound · 194 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 7:08Penalty
2nd 10:59Tanner Laczynski (2–3)low · 54 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 4:16Penalty
3rd 5:29Karson Kuhlman (3–3)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 14:32Tanner Laczynski (3–4)low · 31 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 19:25Brian Pinho (4–4)grade A · 12 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
OT 1:18Louie Belpedio (4–5)low · 38 ft · beat Jakub Skarek