AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 13

Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers
6:3
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
3.63.2
High danger
56
Chances
1413
Shots
4028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal28
14Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances6
3.62Expected goals3.24

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st19–96–54–41.8–1.1
2nd9–114–41–11.0–1.3
3rd12–84–40–10.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR34:55 of the 3rd15:0515:05+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
40
Saves
34
Allowed
6
xGA
3.61
GSAx
-2.39
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
3.24
GSAx
+0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:41Patrick Giles (1–0)high · rebound · 22 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 8:08Ben Steeves (2–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 8:48Penalty
  • 1st 8:48Penalty
  • 1st 8:48Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Adam Gaudette (2–1)high · 14 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 19:36Penalty
  • 2nd 0:37Mackie Samoskevich (3–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 5:27Gerry Mayhew (4–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 13:43Penalty
  • 2nd 15:58Ryan Smith (4–2)grade A · 5 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 1:16Penalty
  • 3rd 4:55Will Lockwood (5–2)low · 29 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 15:29Joseph Duszak (5–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 17:02Penalty
  • 3rd 18:10Rasmus Asplund (6–3)empty net · medium · 29 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko