AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 13

Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles
1:2
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
11%89%
xG
1.53.5
High danger
17
Chances
616
Shots
2233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal33
6Scoring chances16
1High-danger chances7
1.51Expected goals3.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–83–30–10.5–0.8
2nd10–172–71–30.7–1.6
3rd4–81–60–30.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
33
Saves
31
Allowed
2
xGA
3.45
GSAx
+1.45
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
1.51
GSAx
+0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:53Penalty
  • 1st 10:20Penalty
  • 1st 16:37Penalty
  • 1st 16:37Penalty
  • 2nd 10:40Penalty
  • 2nd 11:44Nate Smith (0–1)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 18:33Corey Schueneman (1–1)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 6:34Penalty
  • 3rd 6:34Penalty
  • 3rd 14:05Ben McCartney (1–2)high · 12 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty