AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, April 14

Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild
4:3
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.53.4
High danger
46
Chances
714
Shots
1539

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal39
7Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances6
2.48Expected goals3.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–93–41–11.0–0.8
2nd6–153–62–41.2–1.4
3rd2–151–41–10.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB30:00 of the 3rd20:0019:32+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Peyton Jones
Shots faced
39
Saves
36
Allowed
3
xGA
3.35
GSAx
+0.35
Collin Delia
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-1.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:28Penalty
  • 1st 10:37Luke Toporowski (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 2nd 5:22Penalty
  • 2nd 5:22Penalty
  • 2nd 5:22Penalty
  • 2nd 10:38Penalty
  • 2nd 14:37Penalty
  • 2nd 14:37Penalty
  • 2nd 15:23Simon Johansson (2–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 2nd 17:15Penalty
  • 2nd 19:44Penalty
  • 2nd 19:50Steven Fogarty (3–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 4:34Steven Fogarty (4–0)high · 7 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 5:56Kyle Capobianco (4–1)low · 34 ft · beat Peyton Jones
  • 3rd 11:28Penalty
  • 3rd 11:28Penalty
  • 3rd 11:41Ville Heinola (4–2)low · 70 ft · beat Peyton Jones
  • 3rd 18:07C.J. Suess (4–3)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Peyton Jones