Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

2:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.83.5
High danger: 67
Chances: 1516
Shots: 3438

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal38

15Scoring chances16

6High-danger chances7

3.75Expected goals3.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	6–4	2–1	1.5–0.7
2nd	7–15	5–9	3–4	1.2–1.7
3rd	15–13	4–3	1–2	1.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.52
GSAx: -0.48

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: +1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:46Patrick Brown (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 9:24Jaxon Nelson (2–0)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 16:47Penalty
2nd 3:36Penalty
2nd 5:10Penalty
2nd 13:08Drew Callin (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 13:18Penalty
2nd 13:19Penalty
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 14:40Adam Gaudette (2–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 18:28Penalty
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 10:32Adam Gaudette (2–3)low · 49 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 13:24Penalty
3rd 19:08Penalty
3rd 19:12Keean Washkurak (2–4)empty net · low · 60 ft · beat Brandon Bussi