Grand Rapids Griffins at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:7

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

GRCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.73.7
High danger: 66
Chances: 815
Shots: 2631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances15

6High-danger chances6

2.66Expected goals3.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	2–2	2–0	0.7–0.8
2nd	12–8	3–5	2–2	1.2–1.1
3rd	7–14	3–8	2–4	0.8–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	8:55 of the 3rd	11:05	11:05	+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 24
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.66
GSAx: -3.34

Antti Raanta

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:37Penalty
1st 8:54Isaac Ratcliffe (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 12:05Penalty
1st 13:46Matt Donovan (0–2)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 15:27Elmer Söderblom (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Antti Raanta
1st 19:45Penalty
2nd 0:59Nathan Sucese (1–3)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 2:39Hudson Elynuik (1–4)high · 10 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 17:54Tyler Spezia (2–4)grade A · 8 ft · beat Antti Raanta
3rd 8:55Chris Terry (2–5)medium · 28 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 12:44Penalty
3rd 13:07Cole Schneider (2–6)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 19:30Max Comtois (2–7)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson