Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

2:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.21.9
High danger: 14
Chances: 58
Shots: 2719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal19

5Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances4

2.16Expected goals1.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–7	1–3	0–2	0.3–0.7
2nd	7–7	1–4	0–2	0.5–0.8
3rd	16–5	3–1	1–0	1.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +0.16

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.91
GSAx: -2.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Penalty
1st 13:27Penalty
2nd 1:18Penalty
2nd 1:36Penalty
2nd 2:26Penalty
2nd 5:12Penalty
2nd 11:20Mike Hardman (0–1)low · 22 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 13:34Phil Tomasino (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 17:06David Gust (1–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 4:36Penalty
3rd 5:12Rem Pitlick (1–3)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 9:40Alex Campbell (2–3)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 12:44Penalty
3rd 19:02Bryce Kindopp (2–4)empty net · low · 43 ft · beat Troy Grosenick