San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

0:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.53.4
High danger: 68
Chances: 1317
Shots: 3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29

13Scoring chances17

6High-danger chances8

3.54Expected goals3.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	3–10	1–6	0.7–2.0
2nd	16–6	6–3	4–1	1.8–0.6
3rd	10–8	4–4	1–1	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arvid Holm

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: +3.54

Tomas Suchanek

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -2.30

Alex Stalock

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.71
GSAx: -0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:58Penalty
1st 9:58Penalty
1st 12:24Cal Burke (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
1st 12:59Chris Wagner (0–2)low · 68 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
1st 15:08Penalty
1st 18:47Jean-Luc Foudy (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 4:46Chris Wagner (0–4)high · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
2nd 5:04Penalty
2nd 9:44Spencer Smallman (0–5)medium · 13 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
3rd 3:53Penalty
3rd 5:10Cal Burke (0–6)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Alex Stalock
3rd 16:07Penalty
3rd 16:07Penalty