Charlotte Checkers at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Charlotte Checkers

3:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLTHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.03.2
High danger: 76
Chances: 1113
Shots: 3026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal26

11Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances6

3.01Expected goals3.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–15	5–6	2–3	1.2–1.9
2nd	14–4	6–3	5–2	1.6–0.5
3rd	5–7	0–4	0–1	0.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.01
GSAx: +0.01

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: -0.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:08Joe Snively (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 2:34Penalty
1st 3:13Matt Strome (0–2)4v5 · grade A · 44 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 12:33Wilmer Skoog (1–2)low · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 16:38Penalty
1st 16:42Mitchell Vande Sompel (2–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 18:34Penalty
2nd 5:45Penalty
2nd 6:27Wilmer Skoog (3–2)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 17:16Penalty
3rd 5:05Alex Limoges (3–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 10:28Pierrick Dubé (3–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 19:00Penalty