Toronto Marlies at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Toronto Marlies

1:3

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

TORROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 4.42.9
High danger: 108
Chances: 1711
Shots: 3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27

17Scoring chances11

10High-danger chances8

4.37Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	5–2	3–0	1.5–0.6
2nd	16–13	8–6	4–5	2.0–1.6
3rd	7–7	4–3	3–3	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.37
GSAx: +3.37

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:29Penalty
1st 15:43Jiří Kulich (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Matt Murray
2nd 6:14Penalty
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 12:20Roni Hirvonen (1–1)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 14:13Brandon Biro (1–2)4v5 · medium · 18 ft · beat Matt Murray
2nd 15:29Jiří Kulich (1–3)high · 12 ft · beat Matt Murray
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:24Penalty
3rd 3:03Penalty
3rd 3:03Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty