AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 17

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
4:6
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
4.32.6
High danger
63
Chances
1912
Shots
4125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal25
19Scoring chances12
6High-danger chances3
4.28Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–45–22–01.3–0.4
2nd17–119–53–21.8–1.1
3rd10–105–51–11.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB212:09 of the 3rd7:512:07+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
41
Saves
37
Allowed
4
xGA
4.28
GSAx
+0.28
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
25
Saves
19
Allowed
6
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-3.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:31Penalty
  • 1st 0:31Penalty
  • 1st 1:41Phil Tomasino (0–1)low · 34 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 5:32Henri Nikkanen (1–1)high · 5 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 8:09Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 1:00Penalty
  • 2nd 5:50Penalty
  • 2nd 8:30Navrin Mutter (1–2)low · 31 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 10:01Penalty
  • 2nd 17:42Penalty
  • 2nd 19:37Parker Ford (2–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 2:02Juuso Pärssinen (2–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 2:28Penalty
  • 3rd 3:11Egor Afanasyev (2–4)5v4 · low · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 8:35Penalty
  • 3rd 13:22Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (3–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 14:02Parker Ford (4–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 15:36Penalty
  • 3rd 19:06Zach L’Heureux (4–5)medium · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 19:49Penalty
  • 3rd 19:49Penalty
  • 3rd 19:49Egor Afanasyev (4–6)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic