San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

3:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 3.74.4
High danger: 910
Chances: 1217
Shots: 3036

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal36

12Scoring chances17

9High-danger chances10

3.69Expected goals4.39

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	4–7	4–5	1.3–1.5
2nd	8–11	3–4	3–2	0.8–1.1
3rd	11–14	5–6	2–3	1.6–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.39
GSAx: -0.61

Arvid Holm

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: +0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:04Josh Lopina (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Arvid Holm
1st 9:11Penalty
1st 15:08Penalty
2nd 7:05Spencer Smallman (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 9:30Penalty
2nd 12:34Penalty
3rd 1:03Penalty
3rd 3:57Corey Schueneman (1–2)low · 63 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 5:34Keaton Middleton (1–3)4v5 · low · 51 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 6:19Brayden Tracey (2–3)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 6:29Chris Wagner (2–4)high · 9 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 7:10Penalty
3rd 17:11Andrew Agozzino (3–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Arvid Holm
3rd 19:30Chris Wagner (3–5)empty net · medium · 156 ft · beat Calle Clang