Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.13.8
High danger: 25
Chances: 718
Shots: 2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37

7Scoring chances18

2High-danger chances5

2.15Expected goals3.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–15	3–8	1–4	0.9–1.6
2nd	12–9	4–3	1–0	1.1–0.7
3rd	4–13	0–7	0–1	0.2–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	17:12 of the 3rd	2:48	2:48	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.77
GSAx: -0.23

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:47Georgii Merkulov (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 6:04Penalty
1st 8:45Anton Malmström (1–1)low · 54 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 11:17Penalty
1st 11:17Penalty
1st 13:45Penalty
1st 19:14Jayson Megna (1–2)low · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 6:10Ryan Suzuki (2–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 15:34Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 17:12Riley Duran (2–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 18:54Georgii Merkulov (2–4)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Colten Ellis