Grand Rapids Griffins at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Grand Rapids Griffins

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

GRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.43.7
High danger: 67
Chances: 1316
Shots: 3230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances16

6High-danger chances7

3.44Expected goals3.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–16	9–8	4–4	1.8–2.2
2nd	8–4	2–3	2–1	0.7–0.6
3rd	14–10	2–5	0–2	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	3:40 of the 3rd	16:20	10:24	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: +2.44

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.74
GSAx: -0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:59Penalty
1st 3:42Penalty
1st 7:38Penalty
1st 9:48Penalty
1st 19:14Turner Elson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 11:57Penalty
2nd 16:13Penalty
2nd 16:20Michael Milne (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 1:27Penalty
3rd 3:40Carson Lambos (0–3)medium · 32 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 5:20Austin Czarnik (1–3)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 10:42Penalty
3rd 11:16Adam Beckman (1–4)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 16:58Penalty
3rd 17:42Penalty
3rd 17:42Penalty