San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda

1:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

12%88%

xG: 1.84.0
High danger: 210
Chances: 718
Shots: 2035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances18

2High-danger chances10

1.77Expected goals4.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–4	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.4
2nd	11–17	6–7	2–5	1.3–1.9
3rd	2–14	0–9	0–5	0.1–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	15:51 of the 3rd	4:09	4:09	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.04
GSAx: -0.96

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: +0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:36Scott Sabourin (1–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 3:10Penalty
2nd 3:10Penalty
2nd 3:10Penalty
2nd 3:42Aku Räty (1–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 6:32Penalty
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 11:53Penalty
3rd 14:48Max Szuber (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 15:51Cameron Hebig (1–3)high · 15 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 17:54Nate Smith (1–4)empty net · low · 87 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 19:20Ben McCartney (1–5)high · 21 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty