Charlotte Checkers at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Charlotte Checkers

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLTHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 3.32.5
High danger: 93
Chances: 1511
Shots: 3125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal25

15Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances3

3.32Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–7	7–3	4–2	1.6–0.6
2nd	9–8	5–3	3–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	6–10	3–5	2–0	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: -0.68

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +1.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:45Mackie Samoskevich (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 5:53Will Lockwood (2–0)low · 37 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 1:11Penalty
2nd 6:21Penalty
2nd 16:22Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 18:41Joe Snively (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 19:08Alexander True (3–1)empty net · high · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 19:52Zac Dalpe (4–1)empty net · low · 39 ft · beat Hunter Shepard