Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

3:6

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.43.8
High danger: 67
Chances: 816
Shots: 2337

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal37

8Scoring chances16

6High-danger chances7

2.37Expected goals3.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–15	4–6	3–3	1.1–1.4
2nd	10–14	4–5	3–3	1.0–1.4
3rd	6–8	0–5	0–1	0.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:50 of the 3rd	7:10	7:10	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 31
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: -2.24

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:50Egor Afanasyev (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 8:50Penalty
1st 9:52Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 13:00Penalty
1st 13:36Penalty
1st 13:36Penalty
1st 13:36Penalty
1st 18:42Fedor Svechkov (0–2)high · 6 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 0:16Penalty
2nd 2:13Michal Teplý (1–2)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 2:42Penalty
2nd 7:58Jordan Gross (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 10:05Penalty
2nd 16:41Michal Teplý (2–3)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 18:09Penalty
2nd 18:09Penalty
3rd 2:50Reid Schaefer (2–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 4:54Isaak Phillips (3–4)low · 43 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 12:50Kevin Wall (3–5)medium · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 19:54Egor Afanasyev (3–6)empty net · medium · 26 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber