AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 20

Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack
6:4
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.21.8
High danger
44
Chances
127
Shots
4118

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal18
12Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances4
3.23Expected goals1.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–83–11–11.0–0.6
2nd14–65–32–21.3–0.7
3rd13–44–31–10.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
41
Saves
35
Allowed
6
xGA
3.23
GSAx
-2.77
Hugo Ollas
Shots faced
18
Saves
14
Allowed
4
xGA
1.82
GSAx
-2.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:15Mathias Laferrière (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Hugo Ollas
  • 1st 7:12Brennan Othmann (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 14:04Matthew Kessel (1–2)low · 40 ft · beat Hugo Ollas
  • 1st 17:27Jaroslav Chmelar (2–2)high · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 15:01Jakub Vrana (2–3)high · 10 ft · beat Hugo Ollas
  • 2nd 17:20Penalty
  • 2nd 19:31Mac Hollowell (3–3)high · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 1:05Penalty
  • 3rd 2:50Zach Dean (3–4)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Hugo Ollas
  • 3rd 4:49Penalty
  • 3rd 6:58Penalty
  • 3rd 9:58Sahil Panwar (4–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 12:04Brennan Othmann (5–4)low · 45 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 18:36Adam Sýkora (6–4)empty net · low · 59 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko