Iowa Wild at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Iowa Wild

3:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

IACHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 3.51.4
High danger: 51
Chances: 165
Shots: 3721

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal21

16Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances1

3.54Expected goals1.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–6	8–1	2–1	1.8–0.4
2nd	11–10	3–4	1–0	0.9–0.7
3rd	10–5	5–0	2–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: +0.54

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: -0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:39Joel Teasdale (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 2:52Penalty
1st 3:16Rocco Grimaldi (1–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 16:34Penalty
1st 18:38Adam Beckman (2–1)high · rebound · 30 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 4:30Penalty
2nd 8:40Alex Green (2–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 17:01Penalty
3rd 1:06Penalty
3rd 4:06Penalty
3rd 9:49Penalty
3rd 9:49Penalty
3rd 9:49Penalty
3rd 12:38Jack Peart (3–2)low · 46 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 20:00Penalty