AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 20

Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign
7:3
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
4.52.4
High danger
103
Chances
178
Shots
3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27
17Scoring chances8
10High-danger chances3
4.55Expected goals2.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18–69–16–02.4–0.4
2nd9–111–11–00.7–0.6
3rd10–107–63–31.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jake Barczewski
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
3.69
GSAx
-2.31
Ryan Bednard
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-0.63
Dante Giannuzzi
Shots faced
5
Saves
4
Allowed
1
xGA
0.85
GSAx
-0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:54Penalty
  • 1st 3:49Alex Turcotte (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 1st 5:15Samuel Fagemo (2–0)low · 44 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 1st 8:34Penalty
  • 1st 15:29Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Alex Turcotte (3–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 25 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 2nd 8:36Taylor Ward (4–0)low · 50 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 3rd 3:50Taylor Ward (5–0)medium · 37 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 3rd 6:28Penalty
  • 3rd 7:39Alex Turcotte (6–0)5v4 · medium · 43 ft · beat Jake Barczewski
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 10:13Peter Holland (6–1)low · 32 ft · beat Ryan Bednard
  • 3rd 12:06Penalty
  • 3rd 14:06Penalty
  • 3rd 15:19Ryan Sandelin (6–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Ryan Bednard
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:39Nikita Pavlychev (7–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Dante Giannuzzi
  • 3rd 19:07Penalty
  • 3rd 19:14Cédric Paré (7–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Ryan Bednard