Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.93.3
High danger: 45
Chances: 911
Shots: 3634

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances5

2.88Expected goals3.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	2–2	0–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	15–13	4–7	1–4	1.2–1.9
3rd	9–14	3–2	3–1	0.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +0.27

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -0.06

Kyle Keyser

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 9
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.94
GSAx: +0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:29Trevor Kuntar (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 16:14Jake Leschyshyn (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 17:42Blake Hillman (2–1)low · 62 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 5:41Georgii Merkulov (2–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 6:35Penalty
2nd 9:19Penalty
3rd 4:51Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 11:11Nicholas Zabaneh (2–3)low · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 18:38Georgii Merkulov (2–4)empty net · low · 49 ft