Cleveland Monsters at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Cleveland Monsters

3:1

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLETORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.72.7
High danger: 94
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31

11Scoring chances10

9High-danger chances4

3.71Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	2–2	2–1	0.5–0.4
2nd	14–13	3–5	2–2	1.3–1.3
3rd	15–10	6–3	5–1	1.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: +1.71

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: +0.87

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:40Penalty
1st 15:04Penalty
1st 18:10Penalty
2nd 0:11Penalty
2nd 0:55Penalty
2nd 1:54Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 17:06Penalty
2nd 18:29Penalty
3rd 1:35Penalty
3rd 2:39Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–0)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 8:33Max Ellis (2–1)5v4 · low · 64 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 11:22Penalty
3rd 12:08Penalty
3rd 14:52Penalty
3rd 18:37Roman Ahcan (3–1)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 19:02Penalty