Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign

3:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.74.6
High danger: 28
Chances: 916
Shots: 3135

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances8

2.72Expected goals4.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	2–6	0–2	0.6–1.8
2nd	12–13	4–7	1–4	1.1–1.9
3rd	12–9	3–3	1–2	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	1:41 of the 3rd	18:19	18:19	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 29
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.61
GSAx: -1.39

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:38Jack Ahcan (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 3:30Penalty
1st 3:30Penalty
1st 4:59Francesco Pinelli (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 11:36Nikolai Kovalenko (1–2)low · 12 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 16:29Riley Tufte (1–3)low · 35 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 17:18Penalty
1st 17:25Riley Tufte (1–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 18:40Penalty
2nd 0:36Peter Holland (1–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 9:17Jacob Doty (2–5)low · 49 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 17:06Martin Chromiak (3–5)low · 37 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
2nd 19:17Penalty
3rd 1:41Spencer Smallman (3–6)low · 40 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 6:22Penalty
3rd 11:02Penalty
3rd 14:42Penalty