AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, April 21

San Diego Gulls at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Diego Gulls
4:3
Final / SO
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SDCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
19%81%
xG
1.94.5
High danger
44
Chances
618
Shots
2045

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal45
6Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances4
1.90Expected goals4.49

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–102–32–00.6–0.8
2nd3–182–72–10.4–1.5
3rd6–152–80–30.5–2.0
OT5–20–00–00.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV30:00 of the 3rd20:001:20+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tomas Suchanek
Shots faced
45
Saves
42
Allowed
3
xGA
4.49
GSAx
+1.49
Chris Driedger
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
1.90
GSAx
-1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:37Andrew Agozzino (1–0)low · 43 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 7:39Andrew Agozzino (2–0)low · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 10:49Nikita Nesterenko (3–0)high · 7 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 12:08Penalty
  • 1st 16:09Penalty
  • 1st 16:17Penalty
  • 2nd 13:33Penalty
  • 2nd 18:14Penalty
  • 2nd 18:14Penalty
  • 2nd 18:24Penalty
  • 2nd 18:58Penalty
  • 3rd 1:20Andrew Poturalski (3–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 3rd 2:54Logan Morrison (3–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek
  • 3rd 9:52Penalty
  • 3rd 11:59Penalty
  • 3rd 12:26John Hayden (3–3)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Tomas Suchanek