Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose

3:6

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 2.54.9
High danger: 410
Chances: 620
Shots: 2436

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal36

6Scoring chances20

4High-danger chances10

2.48Expected goals4.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	2–10	1–4	0.9–1.9
2nd	10–13	1–4	0–3	0.6–1.7
3rd	9–8	3–6	3–3	0.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.93
GSAx: -1.07

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.48
GSAx: -0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:25Penalty
1st 13:03Penalty
1st 15:54Daniel Torgersson (1–0)grade A · 7 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 16:31Mavrik Bourque (1–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 1:42Curtis McKenzie (1–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 8:22Michael Karow (1–3)low · 41 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 10:31Christian Kyrou (1–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 15:21Penalty
2nd 15:39Nikita Chibrikov (2–4)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 6:19Parker Ford (3–4)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 7:27Mavrik Bourque (3–5)high · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:11Matěj Blümel (3–6)empty net · high · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic