Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors

1:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.83.8
High danger: 48
Chances: 1214
Shots: 3135

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal35

12Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances8

2.85Expected goals3.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	7–7	4–2	1.4–1.4
2nd	13–13	4–4	0–3	1.0–1.3
3rd	8–11	1–3	0–3	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.79
GSAx: -1.21

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.85
GSAx: +1.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:26Penalty
1st 10:17Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 5:43Andre Lee (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 6:00Penalty
2nd 7:24Tyler Madden (0–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 10:41Penalty
2nd 10:46Penalty
2nd 11:48Penalty
2nd 11:57Joe Hicketts (0–3)4v5 · medium · 37 ft · beat Jack Campbell
2nd 17:35Penalty
2nd 18:17Akil Thomas (0–4)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 6:19Penalty
3rd 8:50Penalty
3rd 10:14Lane Pederson (1–4)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 11:31Penalty
3rd 13:33Tyler Madden (1–5)high · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 18:20Penalty