AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 24

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
2:0
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
2.54.6
High danger
15
Chances
619
Shots
3546

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal46
6Scoring chances19
1High-danger chances5
2.53Expected goals4.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–153–50–11.0–1.2
2nd13–151–91–20.9–1.9
3rd9–162–50–20.7–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
46
Saves
46
Allowed
0
xGA
4.63
GSAx
+4.63
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
2.53
GSAx
+0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:38Penalty
  • 1st 10:19Penalty
  • 1st 14:51Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Cole Schwindt (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 14:28Penalty
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 2nd 19:56Penalty
  • 3rd 2:33Penalty
  • 3rd 7:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:19Matt Coronato (2–0)empty net · low · 35 ft · beat Matthew Villalta