AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 26

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
4:3
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
2.03.6
High danger
43
Chances
914
Shots
2443

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal43
9Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances3
2.00Expected goals3.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–134–32–10.7–0.9
2nd10–133–61–10.7–1.2
3rd7–172–51–10.6–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:513:24+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
43
Saves
40
Allowed
3
xGA
3.63
GSAx
+0.63
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.00
GSAx
-2.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 15:45Penalty
  • 1st 16:17Dylan Guenther (0–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 1st 17:00Penalty
  • 1st 17:09Sam Morton (1–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 18:11Penalty
  • 2nd 7:00Riley Damiani (2–1)high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 11:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:11Penalty
  • 2nd 12:33Justin Kirkland (2–2)high · 5 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 12:59Ilya Solovyov (3–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 17:49Penalty
  • 3rd 9:56William Strömgren (4–2)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 12:29Hunter Drew (4–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 14:48Penalty