Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign

3:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.52.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 79
Shots: 3424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.52Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	2–5	1–2	0.6–1.0
2nd	11–11	3–4	2–2	0.9–1.1
3rd	15–2	2–0	1–0	0.9–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +1.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:42Penalty
1st 5:45Penalty
1st 6:10Seth Griffith (0–1)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 19:21Penalty
2nd 2:42Taylor Ward (1–1)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 4:10Penalty
2nd 6:36Penalty
2nd 10:47Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 18:46Penalty
3rd 7:03Penalty
3rd 16:54Tyler Madden (2–1)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:59Charles Hudon (3–1)empty net · low · wrist · 141 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue