Abbotsford Canucks at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Abbotsford Canucks

2:1

Final / OT

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ABBCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.64.5
High danger: 67
Chances: 1414
Shots: 4048

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal48

14Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances7

3.65Expected goals4.48

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	3–1	2–0	1.1–0.5
2nd	14–16	5–9	3–5	1.4–2.2
3rd	7–15	5–3	1–2	0.8–1.3
OT	7–7	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:48	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 48
Saves: 47
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.48
GSAx: +3.48

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: +1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:53Penalty
1st 8:19Penalty
1st 13:27Penalty
1st 14:25Penalty
1st 14:42Arshdeep Bains (1–0)grade A · 7 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 18:42Penalty
3rd 2:11Penalty
3rd 16:38Penalty
3rd 17:44Brad Hunt (1–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
OT 8:46Chase Wouters (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov