Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

4:3

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 2.62.6
High danger: 41
Chances: 128
Shots: 2735

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal35

12Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances1

2.59Expected goals2.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	3–0	1–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	10–10	2–4	1–1	0.7–1.0
3rd	10–14	7–4	2–0	1.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -0.44

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: -1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:07Jake Leschyshyn (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 5:27Blake Hillman (2–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 6:19Jimmy Lambert (2–1)low · 20 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 8:18Penalty
2nd 13:41Jimmy Lambert (2–2)high · 20 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 19:26Tyler Pitlick (3–2)high · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 1:28Anton Blidh (4–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 12:04Penalty
3rd 13:30Penalty
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 19:12Patrick Brown (4–3)low · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand