Abbotsford Canucks at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

1:3

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

ABBONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 1.41.8
High danger: 13
Chances: 48
Shots: 2421

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal21

4Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances3

1.37Expected goals1.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.2
2nd	8–7	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.5
3rd	8–10	3–5	1–3	0.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.37
GSAx: +0.37

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: -1.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:53Penalty
1st 10:28Penalty
1st 15:08Penalty
1st 15:15Penalty
2nd 1:55Penalty
2nd 1:55Penalty
2nd 12:05T.J. Tynan (0–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 4:55Alex Turcotte (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 5:54Penalty
3rd 8:15Max Sasson (1–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 9:17Penalty
3rd 11:29Nikita Pavlychev (1–3)low · 30 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 14:42Penalty
3rd 14:42Penalty
3rd 17:24Penalty
3rd 17:24Penalty