Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

3:4

Final / OT

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 3.04.1
High danger: 510
Chances: 1316
Shots: 3042

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal42

13Scoring chances16

5High-danger chances10

2.98Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–19	2–7	1–5	0.6–1.7
2nd	13–10	8–3	4–2	1.7–1.1
3rd	8–8	3–6	0–3	0.7–1.0
OT	2–5	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:38	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.07
GSAx: +0.07

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: -0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:35Penalty
2nd 0:24Marco Kasper (0–1)low · 39 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 3:20Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 19:29Rem Pitlick (1–1)high · 5 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 0:57Austin Czarnik (1–2)high · wrist · 6 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:11Penalty
3rd 9:25Elmer Söderblom (1–3)high · 17 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 12:29Penalty
3rd 16:22Zach Sanford (2–3)low · 28 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 17:21Jackson Cates (3–3)low · 14 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
OT 8:12Jonatan Berggren (3–4)low · 5 ft · beat Drew Commesso