Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

0:6

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.44.1
High danger: 48
Chances: 1115
Shots: 3440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal40

11Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances8

3.40Expected goals4.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	2–3	0–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	6–17	1–5	0–3	0.5–1.5
3rd	18–14	8–7	4–3	2.1–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 34
Allowed: 6
xGA: 4.06
GSAx: -1.94

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 34
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.40
GSAx: +3.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:43Vincent Arseneau (0–1)medium · rebound · 22 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 4:38Penalty
1st 8:10Penalty
1st 13:44Jayson Megna (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 14:08Brett Harrison (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 1:44Penalty
2nd 6:55Penalty
2nd 7:22Penalty
2nd 7:38Ian Mitchell (0–4)5v4 · high · 36 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 15:49Vincent Arseneau (0–5)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 19:15Penalty
3rd 0:52Ian Mitchell (0–6)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 7:50Penalty
3rd 10:23Penalty
3rd 13:14Penalty
3rd 13:14Penalty
3rd 13:20Penalty