Rochester Americans at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Rochester Americans

4:3

Final / OT

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

ROCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.83.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 914
Shots: 4744

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

47Shots on goal44

9Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances4

3.75Expected goals3.92

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–12	2–7	1–2	1.0–1.3
2nd	10–15	5–4	2–0	1.3–1.2
3rd	15–12	1–3	0–2	1.0–1.3
OT	8–5	1–0	1–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	0:19	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 47
Saves: 43
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: -0.25

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 41
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: +0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Cole Koepke (0–1)medium · rebound · 26 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 3:53Waltteri Merelä (0–2)low · 23 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 6:54Penalty
2nd 7:02Alex Barré-Boulet (0–3)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:24Penalty
2nd 10:36Penalty
2nd 14:26Penalty
2nd 16:12Penalty
3rd 0:19Brandon Biro (1–3)low · 20 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 10:20Joseph Cecconi (2–3)low · 12 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 14:48Brandon Biro (3–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
OT 9:10Penalty
OT 9:10Penalty
OT 11:46Brett Murray (4–3)high · rebound · 21 ft · beat Brandon Halverson