Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 1.71.7
High danger: 11
Chances: 67
Shots: 2523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances1

1.65Expected goals1.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	1–2	0–1	0.5–0.6
2nd	11–4	4–2	1–0	0.9–0.3
3rd	5–12	1–3	0–0	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.65
GSAx: -1.35

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: -0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:32Penalty
1st 14:11Lukas Reichel (0–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 14:22Carter Mazur (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 15:37Penalty
1st 15:37Penalty
1st 16:03Austin Czarnik (2–1)low · 30 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 14:28Penalty
2nd 18:10Penalty
3rd 5:00Jonatan Berggren (3–1)low · 36 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:40Lukas Reichel (3–2)low · 54 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 10:44Penalty
3rd 18:55Marco Kasper (4–2)empty net · low · 94 ft