Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

5:7

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.13.8
High danger: 33
Chances: 1116
Shots: 3637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal37

11Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances3

3.10Expected goals3.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–4	1–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	14–11	4–4	1–1	1.3–1.3
3rd	12–16	4–8	1–1	1.1–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 30
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: -3.24

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: -1.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:50Penalty
1st 5:47Jonathan Aspirot (1–0)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 11:20John Hayden (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
1st 12:02Jacob Melanson (1–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
1st 14:28Penalty
2nd 2:49Penalty
2nd 2:55Adam Klapka (2–2)5v4 · grade A · 13 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 5:39Penalty
2nd 5:56Penalty
2nd 6:01Marian Studenic (2–3)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
2nd 6:25Penalty
2nd 16:35Penalty
2nd 18:57Penalty
3rd 0:57Jérémie Poirier (3–3)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 5:47Penalty
3rd 6:19Marian Studenic (3–4)4v5 · medium · 23 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 7:03Cole Schwindt (4–4)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 7:54Penalty
3rd 8:16Devin Shore (4–5)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 9:18Max McCormick (4–6)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 11:44Jakob Pelletier (5–6)medium · 29 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 12:26Penalty
3rd 19:50Max McCormick (5–7)empty net · medium · 12 ft · beat Dustin Wolf