Syracuse Crunch at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Syracuse Crunch

5:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SYRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 1.41.4
High danger: 23
Chances: 46
Shots: 2018

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal18

4Scoring chances6

2High-danger chances3

1.35Expected goals1.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	1–2	0–1	0.4–0.4
2nd	8–7	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.6
3rd	4–7	1–1	1–0	0.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	14:50 of the 3rd	5:10	5:10	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.35
GSAx: -3.65

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.41
GSAx: -0.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:28Declan Carlile (1–0)low · 56 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 9:43Cole Koepke (2–0)low · 45 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 13:40Penalty
1st 14:43Penalty
1st 17:33Jeremy Davies (2–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 4:38Penalty
2nd 8:35Waltteri Merelä (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 9:35Penalty
2nd 10:33Michael Mersch (3–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 14:55Penalty
3rd 14:50Cole Koepke (4–2)low · 23 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:49Penalty
3rd 16:49Felix Robert (5–2)empty net · low · 94 ft · beat Devon Levi