Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

0:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.53.4
High danger: 26
Chances: 813
Shots: 3132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances6

2.49Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–14	5–6	2–2	1.1–1.4
2nd	5–12	0–6	0–3	0.3–1.5
3rd	15–6	3–1	0–1	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	7:13 of the 3rd	12:47	12:47	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +0.37

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +2.49

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Penalty
1st 6:40Cale Fleury (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
1st 10:38Penalty
1st 15:38Shane Wright (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
1st 18:45Penalty
2nd 19:08Penalty
3rd 7:13Devin Shore (0–3)low · 34 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 18:33Penalty