Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears

5:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.62.6
High danger: 22
Chances: 119
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances2

2.61Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	2–4	0–0	0.7–0.9
2nd	9–8	2–1	0–0	0.6–0.3
3rd	10–13	7–4	2–2	1.3–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	14:52 of the 3rd	5:08	5:08	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: -0.41

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -2.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:45Penalty
1st 9:01Rhett Gardner (0–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 9:18Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 12:18Garrett Wilson (1–2)low · 58 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 15:08Pierrick Dubé (2–2)low · 38 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 2:36Ivan Miroshnichenko (3–2)low · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 9:58Penalty
2nd 10:57Ethen Frank (4–2)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 16:17Tanner Laczynski (4–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 5:05Penalty
3rd 10:21Penalty
3rd 14:52Hardy Häman Aktell (5–3)medium · rebound · 34 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 18:16Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty
3rd 19:26Penalty