Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars

3:5

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 3.32.4
High danger: 75
Chances: 128
Shots: 3225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal25

12Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances5

3.31Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	3–3	0–2	0.5–0.8
2nd	13–6	3–2	2–2	1.2–0.6
3rd	12–10	6–3	5–1	1.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +0.31

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -0.37

Ben Kraws

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 6
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.81
GSAx: -2.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:43Zach L’Heureux (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 0:58Zach L’Heureux (0–2)low · 55 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 4:36Penalty
1st 5:37Matěj Blümel (1–2)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 13:38Penalty
1st 13:46Cal O’Reilly (1–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Ben Kraws
2nd 5:14Penalty
2nd 13:02Penalty
2nd 16:18Penalty
3rd 1:14Penalty
3rd 1:57Oskar Bäck (2–3)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 6:43Penalty
3rd 7:15Fedor Svechkov (2–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 8:16Penalty
3rd 9:24Penalty
3rd 17:18Reid Schaefer (2–5)empty net · low · 62 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 17:56Fredrik Karlström (3–5)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Troy Grosenick