Hartford Wolf Pack at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:6

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

HFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.53.8
High danger: 311
Chances: 714
Shots: 1430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal30

7Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances11

1.49Expected goals3.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–8	1–4	1–2	0.4–0.8
2nd	4–12	3–4	1–3	0.5–1.5
3rd	7–10	3–6	1–6	0.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olof Lindbom

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: -1.47

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 13
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.49
GSAx: +0.49

Talyn Boyko

Shots faced: 2
Saves: 1
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.28
GSAx: -0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:40Chase Priskie (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
1st 9:06Penalty
1st 19:11Penalty
2nd 1:10Penalty
2nd 2:07Penalty
2nd 3:58Ethen Frank (0–2)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
2nd 5:42Jake Leschyshyn (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 11:57Penalty
2nd 13:28Alex Limoges (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
2nd 14:35Garrett Roe (1–4)high · 9 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
2nd 19:52Penalty
3rd 5:42Penalty
3rd 11:01Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–5)high · 9 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 13:07Jimmy Huntington (1–6)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Talyn Boyko
3rd 16:26Penalty
3rd 18:08Penalty