Hartford Wolf Pack at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

HFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.82.9
High danger: 26
Chances: 412
Shots: 2427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances6

1.84Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	3–6	2–3	1.0–1.4
2nd	4–13	0–4	0–2	0.3–1.0
3rd	9–5	1–2	0–1	0.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	4:25 of the 3rd	15:35	15:35	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -1.13

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:16Penalty
1st 2:50Ivan Miroshnichenko (0–1)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 7:24Penalty
1st 7:30Penalty
1st 15:16Penalty
1st 19:42Penalty
2nd 13:32Ivan Miroshnichenko (0–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 14:46Penalty
2nd 14:49Penalty
3rd 4:25Ethen Frank (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 8:30Hendrix Lapierre (0–4)low · 41 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 17:02Jake Leschyshyn (1–4)low · 59 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 19:11Anton Blidh (2–4)low · 50 ft · beat Hunter Shepard