Milwaukee Admirals at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Milwaukee Admirals

2:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MILGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 4.22.7
High danger: 112
Chances: 1710
Shots: 3331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal31

17Scoring chances10

11High-danger chances2

4.17Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	2–4	2–0	0.7–0.9
2nd	16–6	12–3	6–1	2.3–0.7
3rd	10–12	3–3	3–1	1.1–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.17
GSAx: +2.17

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -1.28

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 1
Saves: 1
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.01
GSAx: +0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:39Penalty
1st 14:00Egor Afanasyev (1–0)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 15:18Penalty
1st 15:18Penalty
1st 15:18Penalty
1st 18:30Penalty
2nd 0:16Penalty
2nd 8:38Joakim Kemell (2–0)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 10:40Penalty
2nd 11:29Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
3rd 6:49Penalty
3rd 8:03Marco Kasper (2–1)5v4 · low · tip · 33 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 9:33Joel L’Esperance (2–2)5v4 · low · slap · 32 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 10:06Jonatan Berggren (2–3)low · wrist · 22 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 10:41Penalty
3rd 10:41Penalty
3rd 11:33Jonatan Berggren (2–4)low · slap · 45 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov