Grand Rapids Griffins at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Grand Rapids Griffins

0:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

GRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.23.7
High danger: 19
Chances: 714
Shots: 3036

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal36

7Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances9

2.19Expected goals3.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–6	4–1	0–1	1.1–0.4
2nd	9–14	2–5	1–3	0.7–1.3
3rd	7–16	1–8	0–5	0.4–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: +1.72

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.19
GSAx: +2.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:08Penalty
1st 4:53Zach L’Heureux (0–1)4v5 · high · 20 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 9:13Penalty
1st 17:06Penalty
2nd 3:25Penalty
2nd 3:25Penalty
2nd 3:56Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 12:06Penalty
3rd 3:00Ryan Ufko (0–2)low · 46 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 7:25Penalty
3rd 7:31Penalty
3rd 9:58Penalty
3rd 11:20Penalty
3rd 12:28Penalty