AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, June 4

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CVMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.83.4
High danger
65
Chances
918
Shots
2533

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal33
9Scoring chances18
6High-danger chances5
2.78Expected goals3.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–105–64–11.6–1.0
2nd7–83–52–20.8–1.0
3rd7–151–70–20.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger
Shots faced
33
Saves
31
Allowed
2
xGA
3.40
GSAx
+1.40
Troy Grosenick
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
2.78
GSAx
-2.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:31Cale Fleury (1–0)low · 11 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 1st 1:45Penalty
  • 1st 6:56Penalty
  • 1st 9:03Ryker Evans (2–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 1st 16:04Ryan Winterton (3–0)high · 9 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 2nd 1:34Max McCormick (4–0)high · 11 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 2nd 3:14Penalty
  • 2nd 5:48Penalty
  • 2nd 8:35Marc Del Gaizo (4–1)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 16:35Fedor Svechkov (4–2)low · 51 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 18:47Penalty
  • 3rd 8:46Penalty
  • 3rd 17:32Penalty
  • 3rd 17:32Jacob Melanson (5–2)empty net · low · 100 ft · beat Troy Grosenick