Hershey Bears at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Hershey Bears

1:5

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

HERCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.32.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 136
Shots: 3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25

13Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances5

3.30Expected goals2.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	4–1	1–1	0.8–0.5
2nd	9–11	3–4	1–3	0.9–1.6
3rd	17–5	6–1	2–1	1.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: +2.30

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -1.94

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 5
Saves: 4
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:14Penalty
1st 2:46Penalty
1st 12:11Logan Day (1–0)low · 59 ft · beat Jet Greaves
1st 15:16Penalty
2nd 2:48Alex Whelan (1–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 9:14Penalty
2nd 9:35Josh Dunne (1–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 11:49Brendan Gaunce (1–3)low · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 13:00Penalty
2nd 16:29Brendan Gaunce (1–4)low · 35 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 9:16Penalty
3rd 15:58Josh Dunne (1–5)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 18:54Penalty